The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China's urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China's urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China's dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
Even when metropolitan expansion do speed energy application 17,18,19 , the fresh automotive power use does associate negatively to your urbanization level because of economic climates away from scale 20,21,twenty-two . For-instance, so much more urbanized components for the Canada consumed straight down for every capita times 23 . Additionally, total energy usage of rural households are bigger than that of metropolitan property, as the more 85% away from outlying house fool around with ineffective solid fuel 24 . Based on Customers Data System, 275 locations all over the world have fun with hydropower, 189 places have fun with snap electricity, and you can 184 locations fool around with solar solar pv power. At least 100 cities explore renewable power to get to 70% away from stamina, such Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and Nairobi. In america, 58 towns, as well as Atlanta and you can Hillcrest, have intends to changeover so you can one hundred% tidy and renewable energy. Into existing tech and energy shop, it’s likely to achieve one hundred% renewable power have international and you will go no carbon dioxide emissions of the 2025. The worldwide energy age group build in 2050 is anticipated while the less than: solar power photovoltaic (69%), wind strength (18%), hydropower (8%), and you will biomass (2%), with opportunity sites battery packs covering 29% from power request. It’s indexed that most of your own planet's prominent dams and you may strength plants can be found in China, if you are Yunnan State and you may Guizhou State contribute 29% of China's hydropower. The fresh new Jinsha River alone has an excellent nine-top dam. The new stamina made by this type of hydropower try individually transmitted in order to Guangdong and you will Hong kong from higher-voltage grid. Because of the plentiful hydropower resources readily available for cooling, Guizhou Province has already be China's key studies center feet. Inside 2018, Apple Enterprise founded the iCloud research center from inside the Guizhou. Just about every higher They company off Asia features setup analysis facilities in Guizhou, and additionally Alibaba, Huawei, and you may China Mobile.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.
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